Проблемы и перспективы международно-политической трансформации Ближнего Востока в условиях региональных и глобальных угроз
Проект Российского научного фонда № 17-18-01614 ● Институт востоковедения РАН
Middle East countries were covered by several transformation processes and have involved in conflicts and hostilities that allows us to speak about the crisis elements of international relations at the regional level, with access to the international level. Changes that touches virtually all sides of life of the population of a number of Middle Eastern states, forced us to turn to a retrospective analysis of the genesis of the nation-states, which were appeared, as is commonly believed, as a result of the division of influence spheres by the Sykes-Picot Agreement (May 1916) as well as the followed Mandate system based on foreign control territories of the former Ottoman Empire. Formed at the time, the system of nation-states and regional relations constructed after underwent complex processes throughout the twentieth century, but they recently laid bare a number of problems, which reveal certain features of the system crisis.
According to them, the following questions arise and require scientific historical and political analysis. Could the started changes during the 'Arab Spring' be regarded as successful measures to overcome these crises? Or Arabic "turbulence wave" is a natural manifestation of non-viability of the current states-system in the region? What is the measure of the destructive external influence on events in the region and what are the directions in which efforts are required to combat such negative influence? How effective could be actions of anti-terrorist and peacekeeping missions and coalitions and how they can contribute to a political settlement of the situation in the Middle East?
Separate assessments are required regarding the wave of violence that swept the region, which, on the one hand, exacerbates the response of local law enforcement agencies and the army, and on the other – demonstrates the inability of political elites to adequately and effectively respond to the current challenges. Fighting goes on in Iraq and Syria territories. Under the threat of a humanitarian catastrophe are areas of neighboring countries that have adopted the main flow of refugees: Lebanon, Turkey, Jordan and Saudi Arabia. The multifaceted internal conflict, coupled with an external military intervention continues in Yemen. Serious problems of socio-economic and political nature are observed in almost all countries of the region. Israel manifested concern of escalating conflict in neighboring Arab countries as well as foreign interference in their affairs.
The terrorist threat from radical Islamists have alraedy crossed the boundaries of the Middle East. Frequent cases of barbaric attacks in several European countries, the responsibility for which, as a rule, accept the major terrorist networks, actualize the question of opposing this phenomenon at all levels. Halifatizm and takfirism are another challenge to the modern nation-states.
The involvement of the countries concerned in the political settlement in the region calls for a serious and objective scientific and theoretical foundation, the development of which should take an active part russian scientists. Outlooks of "post-conflict" system of Middle Eastern states with respect to their stability and regional security should be given along with scientific assessment in the light of efforts to removing the regional and global threats and promoting peace initiatives from sides of leading world powers, in particular Russia.
In addition to the theoretical understanding of the current processes and attempts to predict the future of the region, requires the constructing options for a regional security system, its shapes and its support structure of international institutions.